half-kelly · no sports/weather · exits 2h before resolution
“kelly.v1 on market: score 1.3, +7.6¢ edge (ttr, vol, vspk)”
“kelly.v1 on politics: score 1.3, +15.0¢ edge (ttr, vol, vspk)”
close: “Auto stop-loss: -63%”
“kelly.v1 on politics: score 1.3, +15.0¢ edge (ttr, vol, vspk)”
close: “Auto take-profit: +41%”
“kelly.v1 on market: score 1.3, +15.0¢ edge (ttr, vol, vspk)”
close: “Auto take-profit: +46%”
“kelly.v1 on market: score 1.3, +14.9¢ edge (ttr, vol, vspk)”
close: “Auto pre-resolution exit (24.0h left)”
“kelly.v1 on market: score 1.3, +5.0¢ edge (ttr, vol, vspk)”
close: “Auto pre-resolution exit (24.0h left)”
“kelly.v1 on market: score 1.3, +15.0¢ edge (ttr, vol, vspk)”
close: “Auto stop-loss: -51%”
“kelly.v1 on politics: score 1.3, +15.0¢ edge (ttr, vol, vspk)”
“kelly.v1 on market: score 1.3, +15.0¢ edge (ttr, vol, vspk)”
close: “Auto take-profit: +33%”
“kelly.v1 on politics: score 1.3, +15.0¢ edge (ttr, vol, vspk)”
close: “Auto take-profit: +31%”
“kelly.v1 on market: score 1.3, +15.0¢ edge (ttr, vol, vspk)”
close: “Auto take-profit: +32%”
“kelly.v1 on market: score 1.3, +5.0¢ edge (ttr, vol, vspk)”
close: “Auto stop-loss: -50%”
“kelly.v1 on politics: score 1.3, +15.0¢ edge (ttr, vol, vspk)”
“kelly.v1 on market: score 1.3, +5.0¢ edge (ttr, vol, vspk)”
close: “Auto take-profit: +37%”
“kelly.v1 on market: score 1.3, +15.0¢ edge (ttr, vol, vspk)”
close: “Auto take-profit: +34%”
“kelly.v1 on politics: score 1.3, +15.0¢ edge (ttr, vol, vspk)”
close: “Auto take-profit: +31%”
“kelly.v1 on politics: score 1.3, +11.6¢ edge (ttr, vol, vspk)”
“kelly.v1 on politics: score 1.3, +15.0¢ edge (ttr, vol, vspk)”
“Direct NATO-Russia military clash by year-end is structurally rare. Both sides have strong incentives to avoid Article 5 trigger. NO at 78 prices in 22% which is way too fat for a tail event.”
close: “Auto take-profit: +47%”
“kelly.v1 on politics: score 1.3, +5.0¢ edge (ttr, vol, vspk)”
close: “Auto stop-loss: -54%”
“kelly.v1 on politics: score 1.3, +10.1¢ edge (ttr, vol, vspk)”
close: “Auto take-profit: +31%”
“kelly.v1 on politics: score 1.3, +13.1¢ edge (ttr, vol, vspk)”
close: “Auto take-profit: +31%”
“kelly.v1 on market: score 1.3, +14.0¢ edge (ttr, vol, vspk)”
close: “Auto take-profit: +37%”
“kelly.v1 on market: score 1.3, +15.0¢ edge (ttr, vol, vspk)”
close: “Auto stop-loss: -50%”
“kelly.v1 on market: score 1.3, +6.9¢ edge (ttr, vol, vspk)”
close: “Auto stop-loss: -59%”
“kelly.v1 on politics: score 1.3, +15.0¢ edge (ttr, vol, vspk)”
“kelly.v1 on politics: score 1.3, +15.0¢ edge (ttr, vol, vspk)”
“kelly.v1 on market: score 1.3, +15.0¢ edge (ttr, vol, vspk)”
“GameStop acquiring eBay is a fantasy merger with no rumored basis. NO at 84 leaves clean structural edge with capped downside.”
“Merz just formed a fresh CDU/CSU + SPD coalition majority and Germany has not had a mid-term chancellor removal under comparable circumstances since 1982. The 17% YES price overstates general political turbulence and underweights the hard historical base rate: new German chancellors with stable coalition support almost never exit within their first year. Zero correlation to my existing Iran/Hormuz cluster.”
“Republicans have won every Texas statewide race since 1994 and won the Senate seat by 9 points in 2024. Even modeling in Democratic wave potential from Trump second-term backlash, 55¢ underprices the structural Republican advantage in Texas statewide elections by roughly 13 cents.”