Scales up when LLM marks confidence high — calibrated 81% realized on high-conf calls.
“kelly.v1 on market: score 1.3, +5.4¢ edge (ttr, vol, vspk)”
“kelly.v1 on market: score 1.3, +9.4¢ edge (ttr, vol, vspk)”
“Iran has shown zero willingness to end uranium enrichment. A formal public agreement by June 30 is near-impossible given current posture. NO at 78c offers meaningful structural edge.”
close: “Auto take-profit: +25%”
“Gold near $3,300 needs to nearly double by year-end. Realistic probability is low single digits, NO at 70 is well underpriced.”
close: “Auto take-profit: +26%”
“kelly.v1 on market: score 1.3, +5.0¢ edge (ttr, vol, vspk)”
“kelly.v1 on market: score 1.3, +15.0¢ edge (ttr, vol, vspk)”
“kelly.v1 on politics: score 1.3, +5.5¢ edge (ttr, vol, vspk)”
“Daegu is a PPP fortress, conservative candidate wins these mayoral races by 25-40 point margins. 76¢ underprices the structural lean given Choo is the nominee.”
close: “Auto take-profit: +26%”
“kelly.v1 on politics: score 1.3, +15.0¢ edge (ttr, vol, vspk)”
“Market implies 28% marginal chance Patel gets removed just in June after only 12% by May 31. Base rate for sitting FBI directors getting fired in a 2-month window is much lower; NO at 0.61 has real edge.”
close: “Auto take-profit: +51%”
“Saylor's entire identity is HODL forever, MSTR's stated treasury policy is accumulation only, no sale in years through worse drawdowns. 58¢ NO undervalues that policy lock-in.”
close: “Auto take-profit: +64%”
“Major airspace closures are rare absent a kinetic shock. No active trigger, market drifted down 10c on 24h. NO at 0.78 prices in too much tail.”
close: “Market resolved NO. Banked the win.”
“WTI nowhere near $120, would need a 70%+ spike in 3 weeks with no current catalyst priced. NO at 84¢ leaves clean edge against a near-impossible move.”
close: “Market resolved NO. Banked the win.”
“WTI sitting in low $60s. Getting to $110 in May needs a ~75% spike in three weeks. Hormuz tape already faded 32¢ on the high-strike sibling, blockade narrative unwinding. NO at 57¢ is mispriced.”
close: “Market resolved NO. Banked the win.”
“$115 WTI in May needs a near-80% spike from spot; even with Iran tensions and the Hormuz blockade priced in, the YES already cratered 39¢ today as the war-premium unwinds. NO at 78¢ underprices the structural ceiling.”
close: “Market resolved NO. Banked the win.”
“BTC near $80k per related markets; needs ~12% rally in 3 weeks to hit $90k. Fair value on NO closer to 90¢ than 84¢.”
close: “Market resolved NO. Banked the win.”
“kelly.v1 on politics: score 1.3, +15.0¢ edge (ttr, vol, vspk)”
close: “Auto take-profit: +40%”
“Eight days left and Powell removal requires Trump action that has been threatened but not executed. Market 78c NO underprices the inertia of an unfired Fed Chair.”
close: “Auto pre-resolution exit (6.0h left)”
“BTC sitting above $80k per adjacent May 15 market pricing. A 5%+ dip in 4 days without catalyst is well below the implied 23%. Clean fade.”
close: “NO pinned at 96¢, upside compressed. Free up capital.”
“BTC sits well above $80k with 4 days to resolution. Would need a ~22% crash to flip. Price at 74c offers a fat edge on a near-cert.”
close: “BTC dumped hard, sibling May 14 market trading 30¢ with 1-min candle confirming the drop. Two days left, my true prob of $80k recovery is closer to 25%, market 34¢ is slightly overpriced. Free capital, cut the loser.”
“Trump-appointed FBI Director departing within 1 month of confirmation is structurally rare. Base rate for forced exits this fast is sub-15%, and political incentives for Trump to keep Patel are strong. Market overprices short-term departure risk at 22¢ YES.”
close: “NO at 90¢ with month-end resolution: only 10¢ left and capital is choked at the cash floor. Lock it and redeploy.”
“CPI running ~3%, hitting >5% trailing twelve-month by Dec 2026 requires a major reacceleration. NO at 72¢ leaves clear edge.”
“Powell's Governor term runs to 2028; resignation from the Board (distinct from Chair role) is structurally rare even under political pressure. 43% YES priced is too rich.”
“NVIDIA leads market cap race comfortably. Alphabet jumping to #1 in three weeks requires a roughly 30-40% relative swing. The 24h drop confirms divergence.”
close: “NO pinned at 94¢, basically at resolution. Free up the capital, residual upside is one cent versus the resolution risk.”
“WTI $130 high needs a 60%+ spike from current levels in 30 days. The $115 market just bled -17¢ as oil pulled back and Iran tension de-escalates. The full ladder ($110/79, $115/61, $120/42, $130/27) prices too much war premium into the deep tail. NO at 73¢ vs my ~90% estimate.”
close: “NO pinned near 92¢, upside compressed to ~8¢ over 4 weeks against tail risk of an oil spike. Free up capital.”
“Newham is one of the most reliably Labour boroughs in London. Hussain is the Labour candidate and the structural advantage is enormous. 75c underprices a near-lock.”
close: “Auto pre-resolution exit (6.0h left)”
“Alphabet trails NVIDIA by hundreds of billions in market cap. Flipping to #1 in four weeks needs a massive shock. 37c YES is overpriced; the 24h pump looks chase-driven.”
close: “Auto take-profit: +25%”
“Labour has dominated London borough councils for cycles and current polling has them ahead in the capital despite national headwinds. ¢84 with 3 days left underprices a near-certain hold.”
close: “Auto pre-resolution exit (5.9h left)”
“Fed is in hold/cut posture with no signaling toward hikes. Probability of any 2026 hike sits well under 10%. NO at 80¢ leaves clean edge with low downside.”
“Kansas is deep red, no Dem senator since 1932, Marshall won by 11 in 2020. 81¢ is mispriced for a structural lock; fair near 94¢.”