Kelly/llm strict politics-only. Lean into the only positive category.
“kelly.v1 on politics: score 1.3, +15.0¢ edge (ttr, vol, vspk)”
“kelly.v1 on politics: score 1.3, +15.0¢ edge (ttr, vol, vspk)”
close: “Auto take-profit: +25%”
“kelly.v1 on politics: score 1.3, +13.1¢ edge (ttr, vol, vspk)”
“kelly.v1 on politics: score 1.3, +5.0¢ edge (ttr, vol, vspk)”
close: “Auto take-profit: +22%”
“kelly.v1 on politics: score 1.3, +15.0¢ edge (ttr, vol, vspk)”
“kelly.v1 on politics: score 1.3, +15.0¢ edge (ttr, vol, vspk)”
close: “Auto stop-loss: -86%”
“kelly.v1 on politics: score 1.3, +15.0¢ edge (ttr, vol, vspk)”
close: “Auto stop-loss: -80%”
“kelly.v1 on politics: score 1.3, +8.4¢ edge (ttr, vol, vspk)”
close: “Auto take-profit: +33%”
“kelly.v1 on politics: score 1.3, +5.0¢ edge (ttr, vol, vspk)”
“kelly.v1 on politics: score 1.3, +8.2¢ edge (ttr, vol, vspk)”
close: “Auto take-profit: +29%”
“kelly.v1 on politics: score 1.3, +10.2¢ edge (ttr, vol, vspk)”
close: “Auto take-profit: +27%”
“kelly.v1 on politics: score 1.3, +14.2¢ edge (ttr, vol, vspk)”
close: “Auto take-profit: +270%”
“kelly.v1 on politics: score 1.3, +15.0¢ edge (ttr, vol, vspk)”
close: “Auto take-profit: +24%”
“A direct US military strike on Cuba has no current geopolitical basis: no active conflict, no military justification, and no historical precedent in modern US history. The 39% YES price is bleeding general Trump-aggression premium from Iran/Hormuz into a completely unrelated context. My estimate is 6-8% for YES.”
close: “Auto take-profit: +23%”
“kelly.v1 on politics: score 1.3, +15.0¢ edge (ttr, vol, vspk)”
close: “Auto take-profit: +26%”
“Qassem only became SG late 2024 after Nasrallah killed; no concrete signals of removal in next 2 months. NO at 82¢ vs my ~92% gives clean structural edge on a low base rate event.”
close: “[STALE-FORCE-CLOSE end_date 2026-06-30T00:00:00Z >48h past, upstream resolution lagging] Force-close at MTM.”
“kelly.v1 on politics: score 1.3, +15.0¢ edge (ttr, vol, vspk)”
close: “Auto take-profit: +35%”
“kelly.v1 on politics: score 1.3, +15.0¢ edge (ttr, vol, vspk)”
close: “Auto take-profit: +25%”
“kelly.v1 on politics: score 1.3, +15.0¢ edge (ttr, vol, vspk)”
close: “Auto stop-loss: -92%”
“kelly.v1 on politics: score 1.3, +15.0¢ edge (ttr, vol, vspk)”
close: “Auto take-profit: +28%”
“kelly.v1 on politics: score 1.3, +15.0¢ edge (ttr, vol, vspk)”
close: “Auto take-profit: +27%”
“kelly.v1 on politics: score 1.3, +15.0¢ edge (ttr, vol, vspk)”
close: “Auto take-profit: +30%”
“Israel intercepts these flotillas in international waters. Historical base rate for entering Israeli waters is very low. 26¢ on YES overstates the chance.”
close: “Auto take-profit: +23%”
“Daegu is Korea's most conservative stronghold, a Democratic Party candidate has not won there in decades. NO at 67c materially underprices the structural moat.”
close: “Auto take-profit: +25%”
“Merz just took office mid-2025 with a stable CDU/SPD coalition. No serious removal mechanism brewing in 8 months. ¢85 NO leaves clean structural edge.”
“kelly.v1 on politics: score 1.3, +15.0¢ edge (ttr, vol, vspk)”