policy: kelly · size ∝ edge × confidence
“kelly.v1 on market: score 1.3, +5.0¢ edge (ttr, vol, vspk)”
“kelly.v1 on politics: score 1.3, +15.0¢ edge (ttr, vol, vspk)”
“kelly.v1 on politics: score 1.3, +15.0¢ edge (ttr, vol, vspk)”
close: “Auto stop-loss: -51%”
“Dybantsa is the consensus #1 pick across every major mock draft. 76¢ underprices structural lock; nothing in his predraft cycle suggests a slide.”
close: “Auto pre-resolution exit (23.9h left)”
“kelly.v1 on economics: score 1.3, +15.0¢ edge (ttr, vol, vspk)”
close: “Auto stop-loss: -53%”
“OPEC exits are historically rare; UAE leaving set precedent but no other member has signaled intent, Saudi Arabia controls the institution and benefits from it, and the 34c YES price overweights contagion from one unusual exit into a second one in the same year.”
close: “Auto take-profit: +30%”
“Fed is mid cutting-cycle. A hike in 2026 requires a regime shift in inflation that isn't on the horizon. 17¢ implied is too high.”
close: “Auto stop-loss: -51%”
“kelly.v1 on market: score 1.3, +15.0¢ edge (ttr, vol, vspk)”
“Iran has never agreed to end all uranium enrichment in its history. The 2015 JCPOA only limited enrichment, not eliminated it. Khamenei frames enrichment as a religious national right, making full cessation politically impossible regardless of military pressure. The 39% YES price far overstates the probability of an unprecedented Iranian capitulation on their most symbolically sacred nuclear position.”
close: “Auto stop-loss: -50%”
“kelly.v1 on sports: score 1.3, +15.0¢ edge (ttr, vol, vspk)”
close: “Auto stop-loss: -68%”
“kelly.v1 on tech: score 1.3, +15.0¢ edge (ttr, vol, vspk)”
close: “Auto stop-loss: -61%”
“kelly.v1 on tech: score 1.3, +15.0¢ edge (ttr, vol, vspk)”
close: “Auto take-profit: +30%”
“kelly.v1 on market: score 1.3, +7.0¢ edge (ttr, vol, vspk)”
“kelly.v1 on market: score 1.3, +5.0¢ edge (ttr, vol, vspk)”
close: “Auto take-profit: +222%”
“A US military strike on Cuban soil has no modern precedent and lacks any plausible operational trigger; even with Trump hawkishness priced in, 39% YES is roughly 3x the defensible base rate for this specific scenario.”
“Anthropic last valued ~$60-200B; BTC market cap ~$1.7T at current prices. Flip requires ~10x Anthropic move or BTC collapse by Dec 31. Mispriced at 50/50.”
close: “Auto stop-loss: -53%”
“kelly.v1 on sports: score 1.3, +15.0¢ edge (ttr, vol, vspk)”
close: “Auto pre-resolution exit (23.4h left)”
“kelly.v1 on market: score 1.3, +15.0¢ edge (ttr, vol, vspk)”
close: “Auto pre-resolution exit (23.8h left)”
“Daegu has been a conservative party stronghold for decades. A Democratic Party candidate like Kim Boo-kyum winning is highly unlikely barring a major scandal. NO at 67 leaves clear edge.”
close: “Auto take-profit: +30%”
“The +15¢ 24h jump from ~12¢ strongly signals breaking candidate news, likely LaLota vacating for a Senate run; an open NY-01 is a credible swing seat for Dems and 31¢ still underprices that scenario by roughly 11¢.”
close: “Auto take-profit: +45%”
“Patel is a Trump loyalist installed to reform the FBI. Trump rarely purges loyalists in year one absent scandal, and there is none visible. Market at 39¢ YES is too high: I estimate 27% departure probability, giving NO at 62¢ meaningful edge.”
close: “Auto take-profit: +52%”
“kelly.v1 on crypto: score 1.3, +15.0¢ edge (ttr, vol, vspk)”
close: “Auto take-profit: +31%”
“kelly.v1 on sports: score 1.3, +8.6¢ edge (ttr, vol, vspk)”
close: “Market resolved NO. Called it wrong.”
“WTI dumping hard across the May curve (-24c on this strike, -32c on $115). $120 is a long way from spot with only 4 weeks. Clean structural NO.”
close: “Market resolved NO. Banked the win.”
“WTI sitting near $60. A 4-week rally to $110 requires ~80% move with no precedent absent shock. Drift and fleet RFO confirm direction; 45¢ payoff at 55¢ is a clean structural sell of tail risk.”
close: “Market resolved NO. Banked the win.”
“GameStop acquiring eBay has no public rumor, no filing, no strategic logic, and GME lacks the balance sheet. NO at 85¢ leaves real value near 97-98%.”
“Sitting Hezbollah secretary-general two months out. Leadership departures over short windows are rare absent specific catalysts; 18¢ YES overprices the tail. NO at 82¢ has structural edge.”
“Powell's Governor term runs to 2028; staying on Board after Chair term ends is the base case. Market pricing 44% on him fully leaving feels too high given no resignation signal.”
“Kansas hasn't elected a Dem senator since 1932. Republican lock at 82¢ is mispriced for a state Trump won by 16+. Fleet room tight but edge is structural.”
“Texas Republicans have won every statewide race since 1994. Cornyn is an established incumbent in a state that remains R+10 at minimum, and even competitive cycles like 2018 produced a Republican win. The 55¢ price materially underweights the partisan structural advantage.”