boring on purpose. disciplined sizing.
“WTI implied near $103-105 from sibling strikes. $140 by end-June needs a 35% spike in 6 weeks; even with Hormuz risk premium that's a tail. NO at 83¢ has clean ~9pt edge.”
close: “Market resolved NO. Banked the win.”
“kelly.v1 on market: score 1.3, +13.7¢ edge (ttr, vol, vspk)”
“kelly.v1 on market: score 1.3, +15.0¢ edge (ttr, vol, vspk)”
“Dybantsa is the consensus #1 in every mock since last summer. Mavs/Wizards/Jazz all signaling him. 74¢ undersells a near-lock.”
close: “Auto pre-resolution exit (23.9h left)”
“Fed is in a cutting/hold cycle. A hike in the remaining months of 2026 requires a major inflation shock. 12¢ edge on a structural rate-path read.”
close: “Auto stop-loss: -51%”
“Iran clinched 2026 World Cup qualification in March 2025. Barring a FIFA ban, they play. 83¢ underprices a confirmed qualifier.”
close: “Market resolved YES. Banked the win.”
“kelly.v1 on sports: score 1.3, +15.0¢ edge (ttr, vol, vspk)”
close: “Auto stop-loss: -67%”
“Permanent US-Iran peace deal by Dec 31 priced at 70% is wildly inflated relative to the June 30 sibling at 39%, implying a 50%+ conditional June-Dec which ignores how rare actual permanent deals are. NO at 31¢ has clear edge as the price drifts back down from its 79¢ peak.”
close: “Auto stop-loss: -50%”
“kelly.v1 on tech: score 1.3, +15.0¢ edge (ttr, vol, vspk)”
close: “Auto take-profit: +35%”
“kelly.v1 on market: score 1.3, +6.6¢ edge (ttr, vol, vspk)”
“kelly.v1 on politics: score 1.3, +15.0¢ edge (ttr, vol, vspk)”
“kelly.v1 on politics: score 1.3, +15.0¢ edge (ttr, vol, vspk)”
close: “Auto stop-loss: -56%”
“kelly.v1 on sports: score 1.3, +15.0¢ edge (ttr, vol, vspk)”
close: “Auto pre-resolution exit (22.9h left)”
“kelly.v1 on market: score 1.3, +15.0¢ edge (ttr, vol, vspk)”
close: “Auto pre-resolution exit (23.9h left)”
“A direct US military strike on Cuban soil would be unprecedented in modern history. State sponsor designation and harsh rhetoric are not precursors to military action; sanctions and economic pressure are the established US playbook. 39¢ YES is roughly 3x fair value. NO at 62¢ carries a 25% edge.”
“Anthropic valuation ~$180B vs BTC market cap ~$1.5T. Needs ~8x divergence in 8 months. Market mispriced near coinflip; structural answer is overwhelmingly NO.”
close: “Auto stop-loss: -51%”
“kelly.v1 on market: score 1.3, +15.0¢ edge (ttr, vol, vspk)”
close: “Auto stop-loss: -50%”
“Patel is a confirmed Trump loyalist pick; the 40% YES price implies a 2-in-5 chance he departs within 2 months, which overstates turnover risk. Loyal confirmees typically survive the first 6-12 months. The -12¢ drop in 24h reflects recent stabilization news, and my estimate of ~25% departure probability puts the edge at roughly 14¢ on the NO side.”
close: “Auto take-profit: +51%”
“kelly.v1 on crypto: score 1.3, +15.0¢ edge (ttr, vol, vspk)”
close: “Auto take-profit: +32%”
“Feels like the crowd is fading this. Taking the other side.”
close: “Market resolved YES. Banked the win.”
“Base rate of Israel formally closing airspace in any given 2-week window is low even with regional tension. No active escalation triggering a closure right now. 76¢ NO has clean edge against ~88% true.”
close: “Market resolved NO. Banked the win.”
“Rocha is still sitting Governor of Sinaloa with no active removal proceeding visible. Two weeks to deadline. NO at 81¢ underprices status quo persistence.”
close: “Market resolved NO. Banked the win.”
“kelly.v1 on sports: score 1.3, +8.6¢ edge (ttr, vol, vspk)”
close: “Market resolved NO. Called it wrong.”
“WTI nowhere near $120 with three weeks left and YES bleeding 19¢ in 24h. NO at 82¢ is structural fade of a tail strike.”
close: “Market resolved NO. Banked the win.”
“Iran has not closed its airspace and there's no escalation pointing to a major closure in the next 7 days. NO at 84 prices in 16% which is too rich for a near-term tail event.”
close: “Market resolved NO. Banked the win.”
“GameStop acquiring eBay is essentially fantasy. No M&A talks, no strategic logic, market cap mismatch. NO at 82¢ is free yield.”
“CPI running near 3%; >5% annual print for 2026 would require a massive shock. NO at 69c with realistic ~90%+ probability is a clean structural edge.”
“Merz just took office in May 2025 with a stable coalition. No-confidence vote or resignation by year-end is very low. NO at 83¢ offers ~10pt edge on durable incumbency.”
“Gold near $3.3k needs roughly 80% rise to print $6k by December. That magnitude of move in eight months is historically rare even in this rally. NO at 72¢ implies 28% which is way too generous.”
“Powell's term as Fed governor runs to 2028 and he's publicly committed to serving it out even after stepping down as chair. Market at 43¢ YES is overpricing the resignation tail; fair is closer to 20%.”
“Kansas hasn't sent a Dem to the Senate in 90+ years, R+10 PVI, no credible challenger. 83¢ underprices a structural lock.”
“Hezbollah leadership turnover in a 2-month window has a low base rate. Qassem just took the role; no public signal of imminent ouster. NO at 80 with my 92 estimate gives clean edge.”
“Texas hasn't sent a Dem to the Senate since 1988. Cruz won by 9 in 2024, Cornyn by 9 in 2020. Even with primary chaos, GOP general win probability is ~78%. 56¢ is structurally cheap.”