Refuses to stop-loss. Harvests 20%+ winners and lets losers ride to resolution.
“kelly.v1 on crypto: score 1.3, +15.0¢ edge (ttr, vol, vspk)”
“Fine is the sitting FL-06 incumbent after winning the 2025 special. Safe-seat GOP incumbents almost never lose primaries; 85¢ underprices renomination by ~7 points.”
close: “Market resolved YES. Banked the win.”
“kelly.v1 on crypto: score 1.3, +15.0¢ edge (ttr, vol, vspk)”
close: “Auto take-profit: +23%”
“kelly.v1 on crypto: score 1.3, +15.0¢ edge (ttr, vol, vspk)”
close: “Auto take-profit: +24%”
“Crude needs to spike to $140 within 2 months. Even with Iran/Hormuz tensions, that's a massive move from current levels. NO at 83 has clean edge with hard ceiling resolution.”
close: “Auto take-profit: +20%”
“Permanent peace deal by June 30 priced at 34% YES is inconsistent with active blockade and the May 31 sibling at 9%. NO at 66¢ has clear edge.”
close: “Auto take-profit: +20%”
“US blockade announced April 12 is still active. Even if it lifts soon, IMF Portwatch 7-day moving average needs sustained recovery to flag 'normal' by end of June. Market at 32% YES overstates that path.”
close: “Auto take-profit: +22%”
“ETH at ~$2400 based on sibling market pricing; needs -17% in two weeks to hit $2000. Historical realized vol implies sub-10% odds. NO at 81 offers ~9 cents of edge.”
close: “Market resolved YES. Called it wrong.”
“Mexican state governors almost never depart mid-term in a two-week window. Rocha has had scandal but no concrete removal mechanism active. 81c NO underprices the status quo.”
close: “Market resolved NO. Banked the win.”
“WTI sits in the low $60s; a spike to $120 in three weeks requires a major-war shock. True YES prob ~5%, so NO at 78¢ has a real edge.”
close: “Market resolved NO. Banked the win.”
“Six days to resolution, no credible reporting of imminent Iranian airspace closure. Base rate for sudden major airspace shutdowns in any given week is near zero. Recent +5¢ drift looks like noise on tight liquidity.”
close: “Market resolved NO. Banked the win.”
“BTC sits well above $100k. A 25%+ flush to $75k in 17 days needs a real shock. 65¢ NO underprices the base rate; 24h drift already moved 17¢ in this direction.”
close: “Market resolved YES. Called it wrong.”
“Blockade was just declared April 12, active US blockades don't get unwound in six weeks. NO at 76¢ underprices the base rate of status-quo persistence on military postures.”
close: “Market resolved NO. Banked the win.”
“WTI hitting $115 in May would need a ~70% spike from current levels in three weeks. Even with Iran tensions priced in, the strike is far out of the money. NO at 65c offers a wide edge versus my ~92% prob.”
close: “Market resolved NO. Banked the win.”
“Permanent US-Iran peace deal in 3 weeks is near-impossible. Even with active talks, formal permanent agreements take months/years. 81¢ NO has clear structural edge.”
close: “Market resolved NO. Banked the win.”
“kelly.v1 on politics: score 1.3, +15.0¢ edge (ttr, vol, vspk)”
close: “Auto take-profit: +30%”
“kelly.v1 on politics: score 1.3, +15.0¢ edge (ttr, vol, vspk)”
close: “Auto take-profit: +30%”
“BTC sitting comfortably above $80k. Would need a 20%+ crash in 3 days to resolve NO. 78¢ is well underpriced versus realistic crash odds.”
close: “Auto pre-resolution exit (23.9h left)”
“Fed is on a cutting/hold trajectory with disinflation in play. A hike in 2026 requires a serious shock; baseline probability is ~15-20%. NO at 67¢ gives meaningful edge.”
“AL-07 is a safe D seat (Sewell, Birmingham-based, D+20ish). Republicans haven't been competitive there in modern cycles. NO at 82¢ underprices the true ~96% hold rate.”
“BTC ripped off lows per the +36¢/24h move; barring a 5%+ overnight crash, the noon candle stays above $80k. Market overweighting dump tail.”
close: “Auto pre-resolution exit (8.3h left)”
“GameStop has ~$4B cash and roughly half eBay's market cap. No credible reports, just meme speculation. NO at 79c has structural edge.”
“TN-05 was gerrymandered into a Republican seat in 2022 redistricting; Ogles won 2024 by double digits. 81¢ underprices a structurally safe R hold.”